Cheektowaga’s faded blue electorate

• Share on
• 
• 
• 
• 

News and analysis by Geoff Kelly, Investigative Post's political reporter

As goes Cheektowaga, so goes the nation, former Buffalo News political reporter Bob McCarthy likes to say. 

The McCarthy maxim held true in 2016, when Cheektowaga voters broke by the thinnest of margins for Republican Donald Trump, and in 2020, when they favored Democrat Joe Biden.

This year the results were mixed: The Democratic presidential candidate won the town but lost the race nationwide. However, Republicans made rare and important gains in local races.

Unofficial results show Democrat Kamala Harris carrying Cheektowaga by about 4 percentage points, or just shy of 1,700 votes. Her margin of victory in the town was provided by early voting and absentee ballots, while Cheektowaga’s Election Day voters narrowly favored Trump. 

But Republicans won two seats in Cheektowaga, which until recently has been viewed as a Democratic stronghold:

• Republican Pat Chludzinski unseated a four-term incumbent, Democrat Monica Wallace, to flip the 143rd District Assembly seat, which also includes part of Buffalo’s East Side, Sloan, Lancaster and Depew. Democrats have represented Cheektowaga in the state Assembly in 48 of the past 52 years.
• Republican Anthony Filipski beat Democrat Walter Burgett for a vacant town board seat. Filipski will give the GOP a 4-to-3 majority on the contentious board, which has been locked in a partisan stalemate — three Republicans vs. three Democrats — since Town Supervisor Brian Nowak took office last January. Until 2020, the board was all Democrats. 

Filipski will fill the seat left vacant by Nowak, a Democrat, who beat Republican Mike Jasinski by a hair in last year’s supervisor race.

In comments to The Buffalo News, Erie County GOP Chair Michael Kracker attributed those Cheektowaga wins to the party’s messaging on immigration and the economy. That may be true, in part, but changes in voter affiliation are also instructive.

By party registration, Cheektowaga would appear to be a Democratic haven. The town is home to 27,742 registered Democrats and 12,848 Republicans, by the latest count. The Conservative Party, which often (but not always) cross-endorses GOP candidates, has 1,272 registered members in the town. 

There are 414 members of the left-leaning Working Families Party and 2,004 voters registered on other minor party lines.

Then there are the 13,898 registered voters who are unaffiliated with any party — the so-called “blanks.” They comprise nearly 24 percent of the town’s registered electorate.

That’s a significant increase. In 2020, Cheektowaga’s blanks numbered 10,845, accounting for about 19 percent of the town’s registered voters, according to elections board figures. 

In those four years, Democratic enrollment in the town fell by about 1,300, while Republican enrollment ticked up by nearly 1,000.

The Cheektowaga registration trends hold true countywide, though by lesser margins. 

In 2020, blanks accounted for 18.7 percent of Erie County’s registered voters. That share rose to 23 percent this year. Republicans in the same period gained nearly 6,300 registered voters, while Democratic registration dropped by about 2,500 voters, with Cheektowaga accounting for more than half that decline.

Statewide, the number of blanks grew by about 300,000 between 2020 and 2024. They now account for a quarter of the electorate. Democrats lost about 270,000 voters in that period but still account for 48 percent of New York’s registered voters, more than double the GOP share.

Cheektowaga is not the only Western New York municipality that’s changing colors. The towns of Amherst and Tonawanda, once dominated by Republicans, have in recent years favored Democrats for local office. Harris won both towns in this year’s presidential race. 

Hamburg, like Cheektowaga, was once a Democratic town but now boasts a GOP majority. Trump won Hamburg by 4 percentage points.

Ten years ago, Democrats had a 4-to-1 majority on the Lancaster town board.  The party had dominated town government for two decades. 

Ten years ago, Democrats had a 4-to-1 majority on the Lancaster town board.  The party had dominated town government for two decades. 

Unlike Cheektowaga, Lancaster hasn’t lost a lot of Democrats over the past four years. The party still has a razor’s edge advantage in voter registration over Republicans in the town. But Republican ranks grew by about 1,000 voters. Blanks grew by 1,500 and now comprise nearly a quarter of registered voters.

Today, Lancaster’s legislators and supervisor are all Republicans. So is its Erie County legislator and now its state assemblyman. Trump won the town by nearly 14 percentage points.

Geoff Kelly